More on seventy

It was prophesied that there would be seventy years between the first and second batei Mikdash. Nobody knew when the count started, so there was confusion as to when the second Beish Hamikdash was to be built.

This was the root of the party of Achashverosh, and how he thought he could take out and use the vessels from the temple. He thought the seventy years had ended and that Hashem had forsaken His people.

But there is a deep secret here, which I spoke about at length in the 12th Moshiach podcast. That secret is that he was right. And so were those who counted seventy years and came up with an earlier date. And so were those who came up with a later date.

Because all the seventy year counts represented a starting and finishing point where something was conceived, a process began, and where that something was born, the process was completed.

Sometimes the process yields another process.

Sometimes the process yields a challenge that brings about the final stages of a process that began a short time after the first process.

We can not know when the end will be.

We can not say Moshiach will come or reveal himself or hide himself or anything in Av of 5772. Or 5769. Or 5776. Or 5778. Or 5750. Or 5770. Or any date.

We don’t know the end.

We can’t know the end.

Because the end is not determined yet.

Reality is fluid because everything depends on our free will.

And at the same time, there are processes that began seventy years ago, and seventy years before that.

I mentioned that each day of Succos is exactly seventy days before each day Chanukah. This would seem to indicate that each day of Chanukah is the culmination of each day of Succos. And ‘zos chanukah’ is the culmination of Shmini Atzeres. So what? That is for each of us to answer.

What is the significance of the fact that we are seventy years after the Final Solution?

What is the significance of the fact that 2018 will be seventy years after the Jewish people stood up as a nation in Israel?

What is the significance of the fact that 2037 will be seventy years after Jerusalem was reunited?

If Moshiach comes in Av, will these questions matter?

If he doesn’t, chas v’shalom, will anyone stop reading Moshiach blogs?

I still maintain that we do a lot more for bringing Moshiach when we live our lives and try our best to do Hashem’s will. He’s the One doing everything, anyway. He doesn’t need us meddling in His affairs. Does it really get us anywhere? Does it make us better people? Do we suddenly believe we are so brilliant because we might have figured something out? Are we humbled when things don’t work out the way someone predicted? Do we continue to guess and guess?

Is it any wonder that Chazal say תיפח רוחם של מחשבי הקץ – the spirit of those who predict the end becomes engorged?


  1. Anonymous on July 5, 2012 at 11:48 am

    Shalom Ari Goldwag… We appreciate your blog pages that you take such time to do for all of us… Thank you..They are inspiring and uplifting of our Spirit. Thank you…Baruch HaShem!

  2. Anonymous on July 5, 2012 at 11:48 am

    "I still maintain that we do a lot more for bringing Moshiach when we live our lives and try our best to do Hashem's will."

    I couldn't agree more.

  3. Dov Bar-Leib on July 8, 2012 at 2:29 pm

    The first Shoah event after the invasion of Poland was the deportation of a hundred thousand Jews to Lublin at the end of September 1939. This is interesting because the Chozeh of Lublin thought that Napoleon might be Gog Achishena because he invaded Russia in the middle of Tamuz 5572, knowing full well that this was a full 200 years too early to be b'itah. The Chozeh foresaw the horrors of the last 200 years and wanted to short circuit all that pain and suffering. He knew the specialness of the year 5772. The Chozeh was precise with his predictions. He passed away on Tisha B'Av 5575 failing to make Napoleon into Gog even though he knew that it was a long shot. Before passing on he said that exactly 100 years after he died, Poland would become independent of the Russian Empire. On Tisha B'Av 5674, WW1 began. Exactly one year later, 100 years to the day after the passing of the Chozeh, the Austro-Hungarian Empire liberated Lublin from the Russian Empire. The event and the Chozeh's prediction were noted in the local Polish newspaper.

  4. Dov Bar-Leib on July 8, 2012 at 2:29 pm

    There is one distinction between the 70 years prophesy with regards to the time between the first and 2nd Temples and the 72 1/2 year prophesy in the Zohar. There are 2 signposts. A peqidah in the year 60 and Mashiach appearing in the Galilee in the 2nd half of 66 1/2. Peqidot are 1. always associated with Rosh HaShana and therefore apply to everything that takes place that year 2. Are a Din veCheshbon and are only 100% positive for tzaddikim. So the Din veCheshbon of the year 5760 took place on Rosh HaShana 5760, but only became evident with the beginning of the Al Aksa Intifada at the very end of that year before Rosh HaShana 5761.

    In the year 66 1/2 beginning on the 16th of Tamuz 5766, the 2nd Lebanon War commenced. It began in Gaza on the 16th, but by the 17th of Tamuz Hezbollah was heavily bombing the Galilee. All the talk of unilateral evacuations of most of Yesha quickly came to a close. From that point on all existing and recognized yishuvim would only have their fate decided by perpetual never-ending negotiations with a partner that wants to flood pre- 1967 Israel with 5 million so called refugees. I have been here for nine years now. There has not been a defining positive moment before or since that could even qualify as Mashiach appearing in the Galilee in the year 66. This same Zohar on VaYeira sets the earliest b'itah date as 5666. The only explanation of the final b'itah date of 72 1/2 is a defining moment that could best be described as the clop on Yakov's thigh vein at Alot HaShachar at the very end of the exile. That clop began when Hitler invaded Poland on the 17th of Elul 5699. 1/3 of world Jewry perished, 6 million Jews. Lo and behold, by the end of the summer 5772, there will be 6 million Jews in Eretz Yisrael. Now who could have arranged that? There is no way to argue that the Shoah was the defining tragedy of Jewish History at the end of the exile. We are really at the breaking point. Any other tragedy of equal destructiveness would destroy the Jewish people forever. Oh by the way there are exactly 72 minutes from Alot HaShachar to Sunrise when Ya'akov is healed of his limp. If it weren't for those signposts, I would be inclined to agree with you. It is auspicious that the official opening date of the Treblinka death camp was the 10th of Av, 5702. Yet, counting 66 years from that moment would take us until the summer of 5768. Nothing of great import happened in the Galil that summer or in the winter of 5769 to indicate a positive zechira of Ya'akov or a salvation of major consequence in the Galil. Therefore the counting from the threshold of the 6th Millennium has to be from either the 17th of Elul 5699 or Rosh HaShana of the year 5700. And the full zechira of Ya'akov was in the year 5766 1/2. If it were not for those signposts along the way, I would be inclined to agree with you. Patiently waiting out the year 5772. It is now exactly 6 years later after the onset of the 2nd Lebanon War….

    Why bigger Geulah events have not occurred in the interim, 5766 – 5772 will have to be discussed at a later date. You may not like the answer. Perhaps I will send it to you in an email.

  5. Ari Goldwag on July 8, 2012 at 2:36 pm

    I'm sorry Dov. I don't think you understood what I wrote in my post. All these numbers are good and well. Frankly, they are meaningless. R' Nachman said that if anyone predicts a date of Moshiach's arrival, you can be assured that he won't come then. Chazal say it, too. He can only come with a היסח הדעת. If you understand who moshiach is and what it means for him to come, you will better understand what I mean when I say that we can not know the end date. All the predictions do are to weaken people's belief in Moshiach. There are so many better things to do to bring Moshiach's advent.

  6. Dov Bar-Leib on July 10, 2012 at 12:33 pm

    I think that this point needs to be clearly why it has to be discussed.

    Yes, we always considered that the time that Mashiach comes or better yet the Geulah comes in force can be off usually because all other previous times were either Achishena or the B'itah Achishena time that we blew the last time in 5765. We are now in the Shmittah cycle that is drop dead b'itah. It will not be passed on to the next Shmittah cycle. The simanim for this are too strong. 1. There are now almost 6 million Jews in Eretz Yisrael. 2. The next major war will not be between let us say, Napoleon and Russia. It will be between the West (Rome) and Persia. 3. The present leader of the free world looks nothing like the Gog ben Gog from Yechezkel who wants to preserve the prosperity of the Western World. The present leader is a slimy sleazy leader who is half- Muslim (clay) and half -Xtian (iron) who wants to dismantle his own country's prosperity and distribute it amongst the 3rd world (an 11th horny dude). The situations described in Sefer Daniel can best be described as drop dead b'itah. It cannot be extended any longer. So yes, there was a time when we could say that if we talk about it, it will just delay it. This Shmittah cycle will not be pushed off into the next one. So we might as well talk about it as frequently as we can so that people make some stark choices on the side of common decency so they will be amongst those who make it into Yemot HaMashiach. Also yes, if you are a Jew, you should be here in EY. The situation in Chutz LaAretz as we get closer to 5773 might become messy at best. The gentile neighbors will likely not be predisposed toward the Torah's view of utopia. And they will rebel as G-d imposes it upon them. It will be messy for Jews who live amongst them. So there are good reasons to talk about it now, not just to anticipate the Geulah.

  7. Dov Bar-Leib on July 10, 2012 at 12:33 pm

    The Zohar VaYeira 119a does not predict an exact date when Mashiach comes, and neither was I. It does predict a date when the spiritual conditions to bring Mashiach will be much improved. And it points to this summer. One might call it Atereth HaYessod or the Era of Mashiach ben Ephraim. The Zohar points to this summer 5772 as being the drop dead b'itah time period which comes whether we are ready for it or not, whether we are doing wonderful mitzvot or not. The Erev Rav worshiping a god called world public opinion and the Erev Ze'ir trying to perpetuate the galut even if it means not putting human decency kadmah to the Torah, even if they say it is for the sake of the Torah, cannot mess it up for the rest of us this time like they did back in 5765. We are already in the middle, the end of the fourth year, of the drop dead Shmittah cycle. The slimy sleazy (half-Muslim half-Xtian) 11th horn has already been around for almost 3 1/2 years. Have a good fast and a productive fast.

    Actually I fully understand you. We were really burnt when Gog W. son of Gog Sr. did not pan out. We must have really treated each other like dirt to mess up a b'itah Achishena opportunity. The beautiful thing about this Shmittah cycle as opposed to the last one is that both the Erev Rav and the Erev Ze'ir are destroyed in this cycle. They aren't invited to come along by simply passing a basic test of common decency, which they failed in the last Shmittah cycle. So it happens regardless, no matter how hard the Erevim work to stop it. And the rest of us should continue to work on ourselves and do mitzvot in order to cleave to the Almighty and accept that at the end of this Shmittah cycle the West and Persia may end up fighting an all out nuclear war in which both of them destroy the other. Eretz Yisrael will be protected, like Noah's Ark. Drop dead b'itah is not fun, but it does end the world of sheker no matter how many people are working to perpetuate it.

  8. Tzvi Bar-Rashbi on July 15, 2012 at 2:35 pm

    looks like ari my blog is correct about geulah 5772

  9. Ari Goldwag on July 15, 2012 at 2:36 pm

    I honestly hope you are right. But I hope you will admit it if you are not.

  10. Tzvi Bar-Rashbi on July 17, 2012 at 2:35 pm

    look rav glazerson said about syria

  11. Anonymous on April 4, 2013 at 8:37 pm

    God determined the end from the beginning.

    New American Standard Bible (©1995)Isaiah 46:10
    Declaring the end from the beginning, And from ancient times things which have not been done, Saying, 'My purpose will be established, And I will accomplish all My good pleasure';

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